Generally, predicting the Oscar Nominees is a loser’s game. Every natural impulse pushes against the tide, it’s so difficult to just go with the flow and pick the favourites. So  you try and predict a wildcard, a shocker… but when there’s potential in so many areas, how can you just limit yourself to one? And it is worth the glory?!

This year, there’s no reason to bet against The Artist’s steamroll of the season. Harvey Weinstein, the malevolent Oscar puppet master has managed to focus all attention onto a dog, giving the illusion that a vote for anything else is a vote against poor Uggie. If Uggie doesn’t get your vote, he’ll be eaten by Koreans. Leave it to Harvey to tap in to the deep seeded fear of Koreans in the Academy. Dirty bastard.

Most categories have 2-3 locks and a margin of error, while Best Picture is a crapshoot. Due to changes in the process, anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees could be announced and the 5% Number 1 vote requirement to be eligible for a nomination means one or two passionate drives could make it through and attempt to beat The Artist (spoiler: they won’t).

Here goes:

Best Picture

  • THE ARTIST
  • HUGO
  • THE HELP
  • MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
  • THE DESCENDANTS
  • MONEYBALL
  • WAR HORSE
  • TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Alt (or possible 9th and 10th Slots) – Bridesmaids, Drive.
The first five are locks, while Moneyball is as assured as any at having enough passionate support to make it through. It helps that is has a strong Best Actor contender to boot. War Horse could get saved by the Academy, but Spielberg won’t make the cut. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy gets through on the British vote. Small pockets of support could push through Bridesmaids after it’s strong Guild Showing and potentially Drive. I can’t get behind The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo having passionate support from anyone, but really the guild’s do say otherwise. The Tree of Life could be too esoteric but might not be out of the game… speaking of which…
Best Director
  • MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS – THE ARTIST
  • MARTIN SCORSESE – HUGO
  • ALEXANDER PAYNE – THE DESCENDANTS
  • WOODY ALLEN – MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
  • TERENCE MALICK – THE TREE OF LIFE
Alt. Tate Taylor – The Help
The Director’s Branch (as well as the writers) will occasionally go out on a limb, and while it’s a very long limb… something tells me Malick will be recognised for such a unique and beautiful film. Refn deserves to be here but won’t, Alfredson could take the Malick slot. If Tate Taylor makes it in, then The Help could be even stronger than we thought.
Best Actor
  • GEORGE CLOONEY – THE DESCENDANTS
  • BRAD PITT – MONEYBALL
  • JEAN DUJARDIN – THE ARTIST
  • LEONARDO DICAPRIO – J. EDGAR
  • GARY OLDMAN – TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Alt. Michael Fassbender – Shame, Michael Shannon – Take Shelter
Shannon gave the best male performance of the year, and if he pulls another Revolutionary Road and gets in at the last minute I’ll squeal like a pig. Just like in Deliverance. Outside of the top three locks, Oldman’s been precursor light so far, but the film’s picking up heat at the right moment in the USA and Oldman career honours are ten a penny. They are aware of how overdue he is and this year it could pay off. Leonardo DiCaprio has the Clint Factor, the same one which propelled not one but two good performances in a shit film to nominations with Invictus. Fassbender could be the unfortunate victim here, an insular and methodical performance that deep down enough people won’t have seen. Damian Bachir could pop up, but not likely…
Best Actress
  • MERYL STREEP – THE IRON LADY
  • VIOLA DAVIS – THE HELP
  • MICHELLE WILLIAMS – MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
  • ROONEY MARA – THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
  • TILDA SWINTON – WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN
Alt. Charlize Theron – Young Adult, Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Three Locks, One young spunker who gets her baps out (bring it on…) and Tilda who hasn’t missed a precursor all year. Sorry Glenn Close.

Best Supporting Actor

  • CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER – BEGINNERS
  • KENNETH BRANAGH – MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
  • BRAD PITT – THE TREE OF LIFE
  • JONAH HILL – MONEYBALL
  • NICK NOLTE – WARRIOR

Alt. Albert Brooks – Drive, Ben Kingsley – Hugo

Man, I hope I’m wrong about Albert Brooks but when BAFTA couldn’t even spring for him (and they loved the film) then will AMPAS course correct? Jonah Hill could be weak, but I’m expecting Brad Pitt to do a surprise double dip a la Jamie Foxx as his peers celebrate the great year he’s having, especially now he’s aged enough for them to like him. Nolte’s had a late surge, and it’s a hell of a performance.

Best Supporting Actress

  • OCTAVIA SPENCER – THE HELP
  • JESSICA CHASTAIN – THE HELP
  • MELISSA MCCARTHY – BRIDESMAIDS
  • BERENICE BEJO – THE ARTIST
  • SHAILENE WOODLEY – THE DESCENDANTS
Alt. Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs

Conventional Wisdom would dictate Woodley would be the weak link having missed SAG,  but something tells me AMPAS are really going to like Alexander Payne’s underbaked trifle of a dramedy and Woodley will come along with it, much like Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air. It helps that (contrary to popular belief) she’s the best thing in it. Well, that’s a lie… the best thing is Judy Greer but that’s never gonna happen. That Vanessa Redgrave isn’t in this as a lock is enough to disown the whole shebang. Same for Carey Mulligan in Shame. Also, Melissa McCarthy’s token Bridesmaids slow should be going to Rose  Byrne to Chris O’Dowd. Fact. Oh, and no Judi Dench. Shame on you BAFTA.

Best Original Screenplay

  • MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
  • THE ARTIST
  • A SEPARATION
  • BRIDESMAIDS
  • 50/50

Alts. Beginners, Win Win. (MARGARET should be here… sob…)

They’ve sprung for McCarthy’s wonderful writing here before and it could happen again. In theory it should be safer than 50/50, but the ‘story’ that goes with it should just squeak it past the Seth Rogen factor. Maybe. Beginners and Win Win deserve to be here over The Artist but them de breaks. A Separation needs to make it out of the foreign ghetto.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • MONEYBALL
  • TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
  • THE DESCENDANTS
  • HUGO
  • THE HELP

Alt. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Drive

Sorkin is god. Descendants and Hugo will ride past their script problems on Best Picture love, whereas The Help was actually very well written, if a wee bit heavy handed. Tinker Tailor is a masterclass in adapting Le Carre.

Best Art Direction

  • HUGO
  • THE ARTIST
  • TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
  • THE HELP
  • HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART II

Alt. War Horse,

Best Costume Design

  • MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
  • TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
  • HUGO
  • THE ARTIST
  • THE HELP

Alt. War Horse, Jane Eyre

Best Cinematography

  • WAR HORSE
  • THE ARTIST
  • THE TREE OF LIFE
  • HUGO
  • MONEYBALL

Alt. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Score

  • THE ARTIST
  • HUGO
  • JANE EYRE
  • THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN
  • WAR HORSE

Alt. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Film Editing

  • THE ARTIST
  • HUGO
  • TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
  • DRIVE
  • THE DESCENDANTS

Alt. Moneyball

Best Original Song

  • LIFE’S A HAPPY SONG – THE MUPPETS
  • PICTURES IN MY HEAD – THE MUPPETS
  • LAY YOUR HEAD DOWN – ALBERT NOBBS
  • STAR SPANGLED MAN – CAPTAIN AMERICA
  • COEUR VOLANT – HUGO

Best Make Up

  • THE IRON LADY
  • GAINSBOURG
  • HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART II

Alt. Captain America

Best Visual Effects

  • THE TREE OF LIFE
  • HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART II
  • TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
  • RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
  • PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES

Best Sound Mixing

  • SUPER 8
  • TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
  • PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES
  • MONEYBALL
  • WAR HORSE
Alt. Hugo

Best Sound Editing

  • TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
  • RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
  • SUPER 8
  • WAR HORSE
  • DRIVE

Alt. Captain America, Hugo

Best Documentary

  • HELL AND BACK AGAIN
  • BUCK
  • WE WERE HERE
  • BILL CUNNINGHAM: NEW YORK
  • PINA

Alt. Project Nim

Best Foreign Language Film

  • SUPERCLASICO
  • A SEPARATION
  • IN DARKNESS
  • FOOTNOTE
  • BULLHEAD

Best Animated Feature

  • RANGO
  • PUSS IN BOOTS
  • ARTHUR CHRISTMAS
  • CHICO AND RITA
  • CARS 2

Alt. The Adventures of Tintin, Rio